Obtaining population-based estimates of the timing of antiretroviral therapy using HIV surveillance data

The primary goal of public health efforts to control HIV epidemics is to diagnose and treat people as soon as possible after infection. The timing of the first ART treatment after HIV diagnosis is therefore an important population-level indicator of the effectiveness of HIV care programs and policies at local and national levels. However, there are no population-based estimates of the timeliness of ART initiation in the US because data on the timing of ART initiation cannot feasibly and efficiently be collected as part of routine jurisdictional HIV surveillance activities.

The study team will develop a statistical model for the estimation of the timing of ART initiation following HIV diagnosis using routinely collected, population-based data on laboratory tests from all persons diagnosed with HIV infection from the DOHMH. The model will be validated with antiretroviral therapy prescription information, and the methods will be disseminated through a free software package for use by health departments, public health practitioners, and policymakers. The method and software will be strategically important in influencing policies and programs to expand access to HIV prevention and treatment services and to monitor and inform the ending of HIV epidemics at the local and national level.

Project Investigators